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Re: [ARSCLIST] CD versus Download was "All hail the analogue revolution..."

I still think it's a limited market with a limited timeframe, longer timeframe for the niche players. There may well be 5" disc holdouts just like the boutique LP makers decades from now. It'll be a profitable niche, as long as playback equipment is still readily available. I wasn't painting with a broad brush, I think it's pretty clear I've been talking the large middle of the market. There are always exceptions in the niches, as we've seen with LPs. Hopefully, we'll all be around in 10-15 years to see if I'm wrong as rain or right as, well, pick your metaphor.

One more time, I don't relish this prediction. I will very much miss the physical product of CD's and booklets with well-written information. But, alas, I am a dinosaur as far as marketers are concerned.

-- Tom Fine

----- Original Message ----- From: "David Lewiston" <david.lewiston@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <ARSCLIST@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, September 26, 2006 7:04 AM
Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] CD versus Download was "All hail the analogue revolution..."


Hello Tom

I think you may have painted the CD business with an overly broad brush.

Bob Hurwitz at Nonesuch finds that his clientele still want to buy CDs. And his catalogue is best described as discriminating.

Salutations, David Lewiston


----- Original Message ----- From: "Tom Fine" <tflists@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <ARSCLIST@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: September 26, 2006 12:07 AM
Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] CD versus Download was "All hail the analogue revolution..."


I think this is a somewhat elitist statement. I have family out in a couple of parts of rural America (in-laws and blood relatives) and I am constantly surprised how wired and computer-savvy they are -- and the kids were early adopters because smaller school districts tend to be more functional as far as being computer-setup (because the whole thing is more manageable and because inter-district cooperation seems higher out in the country than here in suburbia, so expertise is shared). In fact, e-mail and digital cameras have brought the family into much closer contact, for better or worse (better in most cases). I think this is the same everywhere. All of my nieces and nephews, be they in the North Jersey suburbs or up in the more rural parts of NY, and all of my younger cousins down south have iPods or digi-music players of some kind. It's like a cellphone with kids -- a must-have in almost all crowds.

I will also point out that Chevy -- yes, Chevy -- has an "iPod port" (ie line input socket) on all their cars next year. So I would say that downloaded digi-file music is very much mainstream and very much spread beyond urban "black turtlenecks and skinny glasses" centers.

BTW, there's a huge iPod section at Target stores out here in the 'burbs. I haven't visited a Target out in the hinterlands. Also,. Wal-Mart.com did some deal with iTune or Microsoft for downloading music right from their site.

Yes, the top-100 pop CD's will be the last out-riders to be pushed into extinction, because it's a business model that works (500,000 to 1 million units definitely still works as a manufactured/warehoused product, at $15 per at Wal-Mart). What doesn't work is most material below the top-100.

-- Tom Fine

----- Original Message ----- From: "David Lennick" <dlennick@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <ARSCLIST@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, September 25, 2006 10:17 PM
Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] CD versus Download was "All hail the analogue revolution..."


We who live in large cities and have been computer savvy and internet savvy are like the executives at
the CBC who know only the pickle jar they live in, sorry. There are millions of people out there who
still buy their music at WalMart and will buy it on CD as long as they can and who would still have been
buying it on cassettes if the companies hadn't stopped producing them. And these people wouldn't know
digital quality if it bit them on the astroturf.

dl

Tom Fine wrote:

Hi Steven:

There's a whole generation that's more than comfortable with storing all information on hard drives.
Talk to anyone about 25 or younger.

I hate to say this, but I think 5" commercially-produced discs (audio and video) have a ticking
clock. Maybe 10 years, plus/minus a few years. I really do hate to say this, by the way, because I
still prefer listening attentively in a chair over big speakers with a CD in the player (or a really
good LP or tape). And I prefer to watch movies on a big video screen with 5 channels of sound from a
DVD. Judging from where download-only quality has been thusfar, I am not confident the future
releases will be high resolution enough to afford my enjoyments.

-- Tom Fine

----- Original Message -----
From: "steven c" <stevenc@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <ARSCLIST@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, September 25, 2006 8:31 PM
Subject: Re: [ARSCLIST] CD versus Download was "All hail the analogue revolution..."

> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Karl Miller" <lyaa071@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> On Sun, 24 Sep 2006 Mwcpc6@xxxxxxx wrote:
>>
>> > There is a big difference between the mass market and the music market.
>> >
>> > Even as a teenager I appreciated the notes on the classical LPs I
> borrowed
>> > from the library and even researched composers and orchestras.
>> >
>> > However also as a teenager I taped the "Top 40" off the air and played
> the
>> > songs in the order they accumulated on the reel of my home tape
> recorder,
>> > without any interest in the context.
>>
>> Which reminds me of a discussion I had over lunch on Saturday...
>>
>> I wonder if the classical market is less suited to the download. No doubt,
>> economics will be, to a large part, the determining factor...but I
>> consider how classical discs have, from time to time, cost more. Plus I
>> look to the popularity of labels like Brilliant where collections of the
>> "complete" are popular...especially at what they charge.
>>
>> I also think about the nature of classical music with its wide dynamic
>> range and the complexity of sound.
>>
>> Any thoughts out there as to whether there might be a potential for the CD
>> staying with us a bit longer for classical music versus popular music?
>>
> The CD...or, more likely, the DVD...is fairly sure to remain...at least
> until we are totally used to, and comfortable with, the concept of
> storing ALL our information on the hard drive(s) (or whatever may
> replace them) of our home computers. We humans seem to feel more
> comfortable when an entity can be saved as a single tangible object
> (or set of same)...when digital cameras became readily available,
> the next posession had to be a photo-capable colour printer, even
> though the images could be saved in digital form and viewed as/when
> the person saw fit.
>
> Besides, I hope to last another twenty years or so...which means that
> shellac 78rpm analog discs will be around at least that long...!
>
> Steven C. Barr

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